In the real estate investment growth to determine the narrowing of the case, the 2017 market should pay more attention to infrastructure investment in the impact of changes in demand for construction machinery. From the past two rounds of view, infrastructure investment has counter-cyclical characteristics, real estate investment has a cyclical characteristics. In the stage of macroeconomic recovery, infrastructure and real estate investment to maintain a good complementarity. In the real estate nominal investment growth rate of 4%, infrastructure nominal investment growth of 18% of the neutral assumption, the nominal investment in 2017 increased by 2.73 trillion, real estate nominal investment increased 0.54 trillion yuan, total 3.27 trillion. From the excavator sales structure changes to verify the past few years in the end who is driving the excavator sales: small digging sales share has been from 30% in 2012 to 2016 to 60% or more.

On the supply: capacity contraction, operating rate continued to improve, two mobile phone gradually clear out

We summarize the investment path of the new machine demand for construction machinery is: infrastructure / real estate to increase investment - equipment to improve the rate of increase - digest the channel inventory - to increase the demand for new machines. Industry capacity continues to shrink, which can be verified by the manufacturer's inventory and the number of employees. The new machine sales significantly improved second-hand phone out of the situation of the post-mortem indicators, operating rate continues to increase is the trend of the leading indicators of the trend.

ROE promotion also depends on the improvement of the balance sheet

Historically, engineering machinery bottomed out from the ROE bottomed out: 2008, 2012, 2015 ROE and share price bottomed out. The current engineering machinery industry ROE level in the absolute bottom. The current four manufacturers gross margin level and foreign manufacturers quite, in addition to concrete machinery, other products over the past few years the level of gross margin is relatively stable. Downstream demand, cost pressures if you can successfully passed on, 2017 gross margin will be maintained. The increase in sales revenue and the improvement of the balance sheet will jointly promote the improvement of the ROE level of the construction machinery company.

Attention to industry inflection point investment opportunities

We tend to believe that the downstream construction machinery in 2017 will be a strong recovery in infrastructure, real estate growth rate of decline in the portfolio, the industry trend is greater probability of the normal cycle with the economic cycle. The cycle of change will be an industry opportunity!